Trump rhetoric on Canada could harm tourism to the U.S.

Leena Yousefi and her family typically visit Hawaii four or five times a year. The Vancouver attorney used to live in Maui and had booked another trip for this year.

But that was before President Trump, shortly after taking office in January, said he would impose 25% tariffs on many Canadian goods and repeated his wish to turn the country into the 51st U.S. state.

“Obviously out of loyalty to Canada and our values and just holding our ground, we had to cancel,” Yousefi said.

Her family was even considering buying a two-bedroom condo in Hawaii given how often they vacation there. “But now we’re looking at Costa Rica,” she said.

The Trump administration’s recent attacks on its northern neighbor have been met with confusion, frustration and anger by many Canadians, some of whom are now abandoning their trips south and boycotting travel to the U.S. in protest.

Tourism industry leaders say that could pose a major threat to the U.S. travel sector, which relies heavily on Canadian visitors. According to the U.S. Travel Association, Canadians are the largest group of foreign visitors to the U.S. annually and accounted for $20.5 billion in spending last year alone.

Florida, California, Nevada, New York and Texas are the top U.S. states for Canadian tourists.

Canadians are scrapping their U.S. travel plans

Signs of a Canadian tourist backlash are cropping up from accommodations in Vermont to campgrounds in New Jersey.

Bookings at U.S. hotels just over the Canadian border are also down. The data analytics firm CoStar Group found that the demand for hotel rooms in a four-week period covering part of January and most of February had decreased 8% year over year in Niagara Falls, N.Y., and 12% in the Bellingham area of northwest Washington, about 50 miles south of Vancouver.

Catherine Prather, president of the U.S.-based National Tour Association, said she’s heard reports from “dozens” of members about Canadian travelers cancelling the tours they had booked to the U.S. — particularly in response to Trump’s stated goal of annexing the longtime ally. “Canadians feel disrespected, and that’s very challenging to them because we have always been such loyal, loyal partners,” she said.

Not everyone is as worried about a potential decline in Canadian travel to the U.S.

Beth Potter, president of the Tourism Industry Association of Canada, said there has been an increase in Canadians booking domestic vacations but that the tourism industry is viewing the situation as a “small blip” in the longstanding relationship between the two countries.

Marriott recently downplayed concerns that Canadians would quit traveling to the U.S., and Air Canada Executive Vice President Mark Galardo said in an earnings call that there “could be a slowdown” but that the carrier wasn’t seeing it yet.

Still, according to a poll released last month by the market research firm Leger, nearly half of Canadians surveyed said they were less likely to travel to the U.S. this year. Most of them said they planned to travel within Canada instead.

The shift in Canadians’ travel preferences dovetails with a souring national mood toward the U.S. An Ipsos poll for Global News released in early February, after Trump had announced the tariffs, found that 68% of residents surveyed thought less of their southern neighbor.

Lorna Hundt, CEO of the tour company Great Canadian Holidays, said most of the firm’s U.S. tours are now “dead in the water” because so many of their Canadian customers have backed out.

“The anger is not with the American people. The anger is with Donald Trump,” Hundt said. “And the feeling is that if he is going to go to war with Canada — something we never asked for, an economic war — then why on Earth would they spend a nickel in the United States when they don’t have to?”

In early February, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau encouraged Canadians to spend their money domestically in response to the U.S. tariffs.

“It might mean changing your summer vacation plans to stay here in Canada and explore the many national and provincial parks, historical sites and tourist destinations our great country has to offer,” Trudeau said.

After rebounding from COVID, the U.S. tourism industry faces another crisis

Tourism industry leaders say it’s too early to tell how much of an impact would be felt by a dip in Canadian tourism, but estimates suggest the U.S. has a lot to lose if Canadians snub the States en masse.

Prather of the National Tour Association said cancellations could mean “millions” in lost revenue to tour companies, hotels, restaurants and more. The U.S. Travel Association estimated that even a 10% reduction in Canadian tourism to the U.S. would spell a $2.1 billion drop in spending and a loss of 14,000 American jobs.

An expanded trade war ensnaring Canada, Mexico, China and even Europe, according to the research firm Tourism Economics, could result in a $22 billion loss in tourism revenue from international visitors.

This all comes as the tourism industry continues to dig out of the hole left by the COVID-19 pandemic, which clobbered the hospitality sector.

American Bus Association President Fred Ferguson says there are still more American tourists leaving the country than there are foreign visitors coming in, but Canadian travelers are helping lessen that deficit.

“Canada has been one of the bright spots post-COVID of closing the gap, but I think with the rhetoric, with the news, we are going to see slowdowns in Canadian travel,” Ferguson said.

And it’s not just the resentment created by the tariffs but also the tariffs themselves that will impact the U.S. tourism industry. The association says motor coach equipment manufacturers are mainly located in Canada and Europe, and many motor coach buses are imported.

Those economic pressures are squeezing the U.S. tourism industry just as it prepares for the busy spring and summer travel seasons, Ferguson added.

“We’re just now kind of ramping up to be hosting this influx of visitation,” he said. “And I think people are really concerned that if this rhetoric continues — which seemingly it is — people are just going to say, ‘You know what, we’re not coming. We’re going to stay local, stay in Canada, stay in Europe, and not deal with the U.S.’ “